Congeries of cross connected concepts
I like Sarah Palin but I think she goes off the rails a bit in her latest comment on energy policy. It starts with
As the vice president knows […]
Woah, woah! I am willing to extend some willing suspension of disbelief for political statements, but “the vice president knows” is really just beyond the pale. Nope, I just don’t, just can’t, believe that. It’s delusional, pure and simple. Who really believes that the VP actually knows anything?
| AVeryRoughRoadAhead Thursday, 05 November 2009 at 12:49 |  |
From the always-excellent Gregor.us:
40% of global oil supply is provided by OPEC, and 60% of global oil supply is provided by Non-OPEC oil producers. Russia is a Non-OPEC oil producer but if we take Russia out of that category, we are left with 44% of global supply. This sub-category, Non-OPEC ex Russia, is what I refer to as Free Market Oil. This is ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Suncor, and countries like Brazil, The United States, Norway, the UK, Mexico and Australia. Most of this oil is extracted with the best technology, and with the help of Schlumberger, Baker-Hughes, Transocean, Weatherford, and National Oilwell Varco. You get the idea.
So, let’s see how free market oil supply responded to the rise in price from 30.00 dollar oil to 150.00 dollar oil from late 2003 through the present:
Free Market Oil has dropped by over 2 mbpd (million barrels per day) since December of 2003.
| Annoying Old Guy Tuesday, 10 November 2009 at 20:02 | |
Perhaps the causation is the other way, and the price run up is an effect of the reduced supply.
| AVeryRoughRoadAhead Wednesday, 11 November 2009 at 03:06 | |
Yes, the price run-up is primarily due to decreased supply, but if there were any ability to produce more, we should expect it to manifest in the face of today’s $80/bbl oil, yes, to say nothing of yesteryear’s $140/bbl oil?
The lights aren’t going to go out in the First World1, but the cost of keepin’ ‘em on will increase mightily: World Energy to 2050: A Half Century of Decline. Now I’m a sight more optimistic than this feller, due in part to things like Thermal Depolymerization and Catalytic Thermal Depolymerization, and nanodots:
U of A breakthough in nanotechnology redefines ‘small’ By Keith Gerein, The Edmonton Journal February 3, 2009
Robert Wolkow led a team of U of A nanotechnology experts that discovered new, energy-efficient quantum dots.
Scientists at Edmonton’s National Institute for Nanotechnology have made a significant breakthrough that could help pave the way for new generations of smaller, more energy-efficient computers.
The team, led by Robert Wolkow, has invented the world’s smallest quantum dots, atom-sized devices capable of controlling electrons, using a fraction of the power of current computer technology.
“Roughly speaking, we predict there could be a 1,000-time reduction in power consumption with electronic computers built in this new way,” said Wolkow, a physicist at the University of Alberta.
“And they could be something like 1,000 times smaller in size…
But the trend and dynamic of “less power” seem irrefutable, barring an unexpected breakthrough of some sort, at least through mid-century. In the fullness of time, energy galore; but not soon.
1 They very well might go out in the Third World.
| Annoying Old Guy Thursday, 12 November 2009 at 10:01 | |
It is manifesting. Check out the Petrobras development off shore from Brazil. Oil sands developments are coming on line as well. But if one looks closely it’s clear that the primary impediment is government regulation, not market response.
| AVeryRoughRoadAhead Friday, 13 November 2009 at 03:11 | |
Brazilian deep-water oil and Canadian tar sands are extremely valuable sources, but today’s Brazilian finds won’t be on-line for at least five years, and the tar sands can’t ramp up production very quickly - their water and thermal needs are too great. In fact, the easiest way to facilitate a great increase in production for the Canadian oil sands might be to simply mine the sands and ship them intact to the States for oil recovery.
Point being, that new discoveries and enhanced recovery from old sources are, so far, not replacing the decline of the world’s existing massive fields.
Now, it’s always possible that a game-changing discovery could be made, a super-massive oil field or some alt-energy breakthrough, but we can’t plan on that happening. Hope isn’t a strategy.
Which is why I believe that, at least in the U.S., gov’t regulation will stop impeding oil, natural gas and coal development in, say, ten years. Certainly within the next twenty. “Drill, baby, drill” will come to fruition.
| Annoying Old Guy Friday, 13 November 2009 at 16:34 | |
That may well be, but my point is that private industry is attempting to respond.
P.S. I think you might find this weblog a fun place. That said, there are a number of new technologies coming on line, such as laser drilling which may make a significant difference.
