Palinsulated
Posted by aogFriday, 10 October 2008 at 15:13 TrackBack Ping URL

I think Governor Palin is well placed for 2012, regardless of what happens in the 2008 election. The base loves them some Palin and even if Senator McCain goes down humilatingly I just don’t see any of it sticking to Palin. My reading is that the base thinks it wouldn’t even be close without her. With four more years of experience and fundraising, she’s likely to be formidable. Palin could actually borrow some pages from the former President Reagan play book and spend effort in local and mid term races to build up national contacts and organization. Palin also seems eager for it, which is no small factor either. Personally, I think if it’s Senator Clinton vs. Palin in 2012, HRC is going down.

P.S. What would a Palin presidential candidacy do to Orrin Judd’s “next in line” theory of GOP nominations?

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cjm Friday, 10 October 2008 at 21:22

mccain should withdraw from the race now, and let palin go for it.

John Weidner Friday, 10 October 2008 at 22:16

I’d make a guess that Orrin is thinking of Palin as becoming increasingly first-in-line-ish. Who else is there? Romney or Huckabee? I can’t see it.

Jeb? I see America regarding Bush as a great President.… when Jeb’s about 89 years old. Till then he’s nowhere. Who else? Jindal’s awesome, but sorry Bobby, you’re second in line, at best.

Palin is one of the strangest political phenomena I’ve ever seen or heard of. She stepped onto the stage out of nowhere, and about a hundred-million grass-roots-type Republicans acted like desert plants that got rain for the first time in decades, and bloomed in HOURS! When has such a thing EVER happened? I think she became next-in-line on the very day McCain introduced her.

Any historical precedents? I can’t think of any. This is sui generis.

Bret Saturday, 11 October 2008 at 00:02

My reading is that the base thinks it wouldn’t even be close without her.

Ummm. I’m pretty sure that’s everybody’s reading. Why else would the Left attack her so mercilessly. On intrade.com, McCains chances soared after he added her to the ticket.

I think if it’s Senator Clinton vs. Palin in 2012, HRC is going down.

My initial reaction to this statement was, “What has aog been smokin’ and can he get me some?” But, on reflection, I’ll have to admit I’ve absolutely no evidence that precludes the possibility. I think it comes down to this: MSM will do everything possible to defeat her - the question is whether they will still have the power to do so in 2012 (note that they still have the power to defeat McCain now, I think).

Ali Choudhury Saturday, 11 October 2008 at 02:51

Palin appeals to the base but it’s not big enough to get her elected.

cjm Saturday, 11 October 2008 at 10:51

ali, you just don’t get it, so give it a rest.

Harry Eagar Saturday, 11 October 2008 at 13:39

I haven’t visited Judd lately. But I’ve wondered how he handles Palin, since he doesn’t believe women should have the vote.

David Cohen Saturday, 11 October 2008 at 17:01

Isn’t Obama the front runner for the Dem nomination in 2012, if he wins?

Annoying Old Guy Saturday, 11 October 2008 at 17:29

Palin appeals to the base but it’s not big enough to get her elected.

Correct, but we’re talking about 2012, not 2008. Palin has four years to use her hold on the base to expand in the muddle. I think she would do very well at that, given time and experience.

Isn’t Obama the front runner for the Dem nomination in 2012, if he wins?

Not if his administration goes anything like I expect, which is that I will look back much more fondly at the Carter years. Just consider House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s career as Speaker. That’s the model.

I’ve wondered how he handles Palin, since he doesn’t believe women should have the vote.

I haven’t seen much about her there, but OJ does love Maggie.

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