Overlooking the first cause
Posted by aogWednesday, 01 August 2007 at 09:18 TrackBack Ping URL

In response to this article about skilled workers fleeing Easter Europe, Orrin Judd writes

In a few years we won’t be able to afford the price prospective immigrants will be able to extract from desperate dying nations.

Hardly. What, exactly, will desperate, dying nations have to offer to such immigrants? Moreover, isn’t the thesis of the original article that skilled workers flee dying, desparate nations? It’s the same issue as all the tax breaks for businesses to move in to industrially failing states. Both are fools games, the winning strategy is to make things in general good, not just less bad for new comers.

Comments — Formatting by Textile
Tom C., Stamford,Ct. Thursday, 02 August 2007 at 19:31

Judd’s losing it, an ideological cripple.

cjm Friday, 03 August 2007 at 21:53

he’s just projecting his own failures as a (kept) man.

cjm Friday, 03 August 2007 at 21:54

just to put things in perspective, and i could be off a bit here, but the u.s. gdp has tripled in th elast 25 or so years.

Annoying Old Guy Friday, 03 August 2007 at 22:54

No, not quite that good, but close. 3% annual growth gives a doubling every 25 years, and 37 years to triple. Tripling in 25 years needs 4.5% annualized, although I don’t think we’ve sustained that.

Still, the funny bit here is that OJ is so caught up in his immigration fever that he doesn’t realize (or care) that his claim is refuted by the very article he cites in support.

Michael Herdegen Saturday, 04 August 2007 at 06:51

On an inflation-adjusted, per-capita basis, the U.S. GNP tripled between 1929 and 1995. So, at least during the 20th century, the average per-capita real growth rate, over times of war, peace, boom, bust, catastrophe and cornucopia, has been about 1.8%.

Considering the coming advances in automation, robotics, nanotechnology, and biotechnology, as well as the decline in birth rates and the Boomer retirement, my forecast is that during the 21st century, we’ll do 30% better, on average. Therefore, by 2100 I see an American GNP of about $ 240 trillion, in 2001 dollars.

But that guess is very population-dependent, and of course counts on there being no nuclear wars or erupting supervolcanoes. I wouldn’t be shocked if it turned out to be as low as $ 100 trillion, or as high as $ 1 quadrillion.

cjm Saturday, 04 August 2007 at 09:51

wait until we go imperial, then you’ll see some jaw dropping increases. like taking over all of the oil supplies.

Annoying Old Guy Saturday, 04 August 2007 at 13:41

Nah. It’s not profitable for us to do that. Oil is now our weapon, because if the owners don’t sell it, they’ll go down long before we will.

Post a comment