Waiting for Shebaa
Posted by aogMonday, 21 August 2006 at 23:06
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The UN Security Council is scheduled to revisit the thorny question of whom Shebaa Farms belongs to. A diplomatic solution, analysts say, could eventually bolster stability along the Israel-Lebanese border by weakening Hizbullah’s justification for holding onto its weapons.
Another triumph of obliviousness over experience. Why revisiting the issue would solve anything is not addressed, despite the complete failure of the previous time the UN did exactly this kind of review. Both Lebanon and Israel agreed with the UN. Hizb’allah simply ignored it and invented the Shebaa farms issue.
Moreover, this complete ignores the elephant in the living room which is Hizb’allah’s clearly and frequently stated goal of the complete destruction of the state of Israel and the ethnic cleansing (if not outright genocide) of all the Jews there. What do the Shebaa Farms have to do with that?
What I don’t understand is why anyone except UN diplomats on expense accounts think this is worth bothering with. I can only guess that it’s just another way of dithering and hoping some one else performs a miracle.
P.S. Judd has his standard facile comment of
Palestine has demonstrated how deathly it is for the radicalism of these groups to get what they claim to want.
Therefore we should go after Hizb’allah by giving them what they claim they want is the implication. Since Hizb’allah has clearly stated, over and over, that what it wants is the erasure of Israel and the Jews, it would follow that we, the USA, should help Hizb’allah do that in order to undermine them. Maybe it’s just me, but that seems a trifle over-indulgent.
Wednesday, 23 August 2006 at 00:29|
Demographics doom Israel in the long term. This is all just buying time
Uh, yeah, sure. The thing is, when one reads that line, it’s helpful to know that the person who wrote it has enormous problems with complex systems in general, and with math and statistics in particular.
A static, straight-line projection of Israeli Jewish and Arab birth rates might lead one to conclude that eventually it’ll be a thousand to one against Israel, and then, maybe, the Arabs would have a ghost of a chance against Israel. However, that’s exactly the kind of analysis that caused people in the 70s to worry about global overpopulation. Just as that turned out to be an illusion, so to will any notion that the Arabs will overrun the Earth, simply by reproducing faster than any other group. The fertility rates in Arab nations, although still high, are dropping rapidly, just as has happened in the West and in Asia.
Further, it assumes that higher populations are a net good, which is only true in societies that can find productive uses for more people. Few Arab nations can make that claim, and Iran can’t either. They’re having a hard enough time meeting the needs of their present populations, and that’s with oil money, in many cases. Double the populations and decimate the oil revenues, which is one likely scenario for thirty years’ hence, and you’ve got welfare cases, not Jew-beaters.
Finally, there are right now at least 60 Middle Eastern/Northern Africa Arabs for every 1 Israeli Jew, and yet, since ‘48, “victory” for Arabs has been redefined to mean “avoided annihilation”. I seriously doubt that doubling, tripling, or even quadrupling the Arab populations will change that - it just means that Israel will have to use more ammo.