Addicts don't give up the junk on their own
Posted by aogThursday, 29 June 2006 at 16:11 TrackBack Ping URL

I’ve been sniping at Orrin Judd on and off about the Hamas government. Judd’s thesis was that once elected, Hamas would be forced to moderate and become realistic due to the pressures of governing. Instead we are seeing, just as many of the crew there believed from the start, Hamas holding on to its reality dysfunction at all costs. Oddly, we haven’t seen many of the “Hamas is going to deal with Israel any day now” posts fora bit.

I think Judd’s error here is part of his view that the Palestinian terror campaign has been a rational effort to secure statehood. That is not how it started of course, the terror starting well before “Palestinians” as we know them existed as a group. The methods of terror and maximality were set then, it was the national aspirations that were accreted at a later date. Moreover, the support that was provided by Arabia was not intended to help with creating such a state but instead to destory Israel, a struggle in which the Palestinians were munitions, not people.

Why does this matter? Because the leadership of the PLO and later Hamas are the product of that history, not anything arising directly from the Palestinians. Instead their late blooming national aspirations were captured and turned to the advantage of the ruling classes. Hamas’ leaders care only about their own power and money, what happens to the Palestinians is simply not relevant.

When seen this way, it doesn’t seem surprising that Hamas, rather than adjusting to governing, has been planning to destroy the truce with Israel for months. Absent the existential struggle with Israel, what governments of Arabia and the ummah are going to ship them large bales of cash? If the Palestinians object, Hamas has excellent teachers in their backing governments on how to deal with that. The idea that Hamas would moderate presumed that they had some concern about being a governing party in a normal state. What now see that is precisely what Hamas does not want and I believe that these latest actions were designed specifically to prevent it. Not only does it set up Hamas to blame any and all failures in the quotidian duties of government but it also creates a state of emergency that permits Hamas to claim internal and externally that elections are not “appropriate at this time”. People don’t switch governments during war, so Hamas started one. It was the triumph of hope over reality to think otherwise.

Comments — Formatting by Textile
pj Friday, 30 June 2006 at 22:23

I think his view is that the Palestinian people will eventually force Hamas to give up terror so that they may obtain decent lives. I think there’s merit in this view, but the terror-sponsoring nations like Syria and Iran will have to be defeated first, and then the Palestinians have to suffer retaliatory attacks after every terrorist attack for a while. Once terrorism ceases to be profitable and becomes deadly, the Palestinians will look for other amusements.

Annoying Old Guy Friday, 30 June 2006 at 22:27

Yes, if the leadership didn’t have outside support, they wouldn’t have lasted so long. But given that kind of cover and cash, the oppression can last for a long time.

There is also the cult problem, of which North Korea is the pinnacle. Given enough control over media and education, you can greatly prolong your control. Again, though, if the Palestinian leadership wasn’t being supported in that endeavor by the media in Arabia and the West, it wouldn’t work so well. This makes me not so sanguine that, absent some really terrible devastation, collapse of the Arabian dictatorships, and reform of the Western Media, that any change is possible. But hey, maybe the pig will sing …

cjm Sunday, 02 July 2006 at 12:40

or maybe the palistinians, as a people, are beyond redemption. provide any contra evidence, if you can.

Annoying Old Guy Sunday, 02 July 2006 at 14:13

People are people. One could make a strong argument that Palestinian culture is beyond redemption. I certainly have no evidence against that argument.

tlm Sunday, 02 July 2006 at 15:44

Its more likely that if Palestine became a real country, their “warriors” would have to get real jobs. Its easy to be in opposition, to destroy, to tear down; its a bitch to lead and build. And especially when the you’ve been suckling of the worlds pity teet for what amounts to most of their entire lives. These people, this “leadership”, only know death and hatred for Israel — and they are not likely to change.

Annoying Old Guy Sunday, 02 July 2006 at 16:27

Perhaps, but there’s always the Somalia model. In fact, one can find a number of African nations that have struggled desperately and sometimes futiley to deal with trying to get warriors to switch to being workers.

Beyond the dismal prospects that similar situations indicate, there is the fact that the Palestinians have received enormous amounts of foreign aid and nothing enables warriors to go on warring instead of working like flows of cash from outside the nation.

tlm Sunday, 02 July 2006 at 17:52

Exactly my point. The point being that they will never lay down their arms, because its all they know and they expect the world pity teet to be there…and it will be with nations like Iran, Syria, Pakistan to feed it. The Arab world has made these morons their poster child (which now that I think about it, might be accurate >-) They have hung their collective hats on anti-zionism since the Israeli’s beat the hell out of everyone in 1948. They too have too much riding on a Palestinian state to let it fail.

Dont get me wrong, I have plenty of beefs with Israel. But I respect them. Standing amidst a sea of people that want them wiped from the map takes…well…chutzpah :)

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