Swimming out to meet the wave of the future
Posted by aogMonday, 24 April 2006 at 22:22 TrackBack Ping URL

Dateline: Junkyard Blog

Michelle Malkin has a new weblog which is a video weblog. I have to be honest and say that I don’t get video weblogs (although I’d rather go video than audio, because you can also just not watch and turn the former in to the latter). There’s no denying, however, that video is the hot space for online content these days, both for weblogs and for other content areas.

I suspect that Malkin wants to get out on the front of the wave. The A-list of video weblogs has not been set yet and it certainly seems that early adopters have a big positional advantage. Beyond that, it is a common phenomenon that dominance can become self-sustaining where one is dominant because of the hot tips and contributed content, all of which flows in because one is dominant. Dozens, if not hundreds, of people will volunteer to be unpaid research assistants. It’s a great place to be if you want to be top of the heap.

I wish Malkin and her crew well — it will definitely be interesting to see from both a content and a technological point of view.

Comments — Formatting by Textile
Michael Herdegen Tuesday, 25 April 2006 at 03:09

A cynic might also note that Michelle Malkin is gorgeous, which won’t hurt her popularity as a video blogger.

But I do agree that video blogging is the future, although it remains to be seen if it’s the immediate future, or five years out. It’s the same dynamic as that which makes television more popular than radio or periodicals.

Annoying Old Guy Tuesday, 25 April 2006 at 07:57

Yeah, timing is the tricky bit, isn’t it? But if it were easy, everyone would do it.

On the other hand, one must keep in mind the selection effect when looking at past histories. We only remember the people who got in at just the right time. There is almost always a constant stream of entrants, it is just that those too early or too late are forgotten.

Michael Herdegen Tuesday, 25 April 2006 at 10:02

I was just thinking about that, with regard to billionaires.

Being a millionaire is fairly easy, it just takes being good at something, discipline, avoiding very bad luck, and time.

Being a billionaire, however, generally takes all of the above,

plus

really good luck. All of the billionaires that I’ve ever read about were doing about the same thing as dozens, hundreds, maybe thousands of others, but for some reason they threaded the needle. It seems almost random, in many cases.

It’s kinda like Britney Spears. She’s cute, and she can sing, but why did she accumulate $ 100 million, out of all of the attractive young female vocalists, twenty times more than almost any other musical success story ?

Right place, right time, right style, as far as I can see.

cjm Saturday, 29 April 2006 at 13:05

i have thought of this phenomenon in regard to mafia leadership.

was hitler really that gifted, or did his number just come up at a propiscious time ?

Annoying Old Guy Saturday, 29 April 2006 at 17:20

Oh, he was gifted all right. Every source I have read agrees with his great powers of rhetoric, both in composition and delivery. He also had a way with political scheming. But that’s to be expected. To win big, you need to be both good and lucky.

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