Congeries of cross connected concepts
One thing that will be interesting to watch as the final numbers come in for the election is how strong of a candidate President Bush really is. Back in 2000 I was of the opinion that if Bush even came close to Gore, that would show he was a strong candidate because by non-candidate measures Gore should have clobbered Bush. The current situation is very similar in terms of non-candidate measures (such as the economy). On top of that is the shear ineptness of the Kerry campaign. Objectively, this puts Bush in an even better position with respect to Kerry than Gore had with respect to Bush (Gore had friendly Old Media when they still mattered, but Bush has incumbency).
There have been claims that since the candidates have been polling even, it means that Bush is a very weak candidate because he should have pulled ahead. But earlier polls are very unreliable, both because many people don’t care and will say anything and because voters do, eventually, pay attention to facts on the ground which may be quite different during the election than before it. Ultimately, of course, we can’t just Bush in this regard until the election is held. But if Bush doesn’t have at least a 10% advantage (e.g., 55% to 45%) it should be somewhat embarassing for him. If he loses, he deserves to be mocked like Gore.
