Posted by aogMonday, 12 July 2004 at 18:35 TrackBack Ping URL

Orrin Judd has a post about the infiltration of Iran by emissaries of the Iraqi Shi’ites.

It made me think about the domino theory, which is regularly mocked by the Left. The basic idea was that if Iraq turned in to a moderately successful self-ordered state, then there would be massive pressure on the repressive states of Arabia and Iran to reform as well. While this concept is mocked among the Western intellectuals, clearly the mullahs of Iran take it very seriously indeed. It is precisely this kind of information flow from Iraq to Iran that the domino theory predicted and frightens the mullahs.

Iran can’t directly interfere with travel of Iranians to Iraq without completely destroying what remains of the regime’s legitimacy. However, Iran is taking other actions. During the last war, Iraq got some minor support from the USA. This time we have 130,000 troops and a far more powerful military ready for action next door. Yet despite this, Iran has been funding and directly supporting terrorism in Iraq. That’s a bit desperate. Iran is also working on breaking down the UK, and quite successfully. Nevertheless, it’s still quite a risky strategy. I read that kind of adventurism as the moves of a regime with a serious problem, which is willing to take significant risks because the alternatives are worse. While many think we should take on the Saudi Entity first, I am still in favor of putting whatever pressure we can on Iran first. If it cracks it’s all down hill for the Caliphascists from then on.