Oh, yeah, that cost overrun
Posted by aogFriday, 30 January 2004 at 08:44 TrackBack Ping URL

It was announced on the news this morning that (surprise!) the recent extension of Medicare benefits will cost $540 billion, not $400 billion, over the next ten years. That’s only a 35% in a year, which is about what I’d expect for any government supplied health benefit. President Bush is really betting the farm on the Democratic Party being completely unable to be rational about foreign policy. As Damian Penny notes, if the Democrats nominate someone with foreign policy credibility, it’s over for Bush.

I suppose it’s reasonable to count on the Democratics Party nominating someone with a pernicious foreign policy (who doesn’t have one except Lieberman, and he’s not going to be the nominee). However, that could leave a big problem for 2008. Will Bush prove to be the Clinton of the Republican Party, boosting his own re-election at the long term cost of the Party? They are both famous for the same kind of triangulation. Bush supporters could point out one big difference, which is that the Republican Party is gaining elected positions across the board rather than losing them, so it’s not completely equivalent.

The longer term may be the fade out of the Democratic Party, some small slice going to the Green/Red coalition with the rest joining a Republican splinter group of coots (socially liberal, fiscally conservative). We won’t really know until about half way through Bush’s second term.