Consolidation in the fake ID industry
Posted by aogMonday, 21 July 2003 at 08:33 TrackBack Ping URL

What occurs to me in thinking about a national identity card is that it will lead to consolidation in the fake ID industry. With a national database for the identifiers, it will be much harder to do just a physical fake and get away with it. This will make life difficult for the low end fake ID manufacturers. On the other hand, a national database means that suborning a single low paid government employee means that one can create fake IDs far more reliable than any available today. Once people become used to the national database being the definitive voice, if a query to it returns “valid” people won’t examine the actual physical ID very closely. This favors larger, more organized concerns that can create an ongoing relationship with clerks in the national ID service or even insert one of their own. However, this will require a higher level of capital expenditure so a larger market will be required for adequate return on investment. So if a national ID comes about, expect to see the rise of fewer but larger fake ID consortiums. Actual security against terrorism seems unlikely, though.